Predicting process performance: A white‐box approach based on process models

Abstract

Predictive business process monitoring methods exploit historical process execution logs to provide predictions about running instances of a process. These predictions enable process workers and managers to preempt performance issues or compliance violations. A number of approaches have been proposed to predict quantitative process performance indicators for running instances of a process, including remaining cycle time, cost, or probability of deadline violation. However, these approaches adopt a black‐box approach, insofar as they predict a single scalar value without decomposing this prediction into more elementary components. In this paper, we propose a white‐box approach to predict perf..